Sunday, October 31, 2004


I attended a purchasing / logistics meeting on October 10. It was the "annual state of the market barometer" discussion. The speaker was an analyst at an investment / merchant unit of a big bank. He predicted that for one dollar you will receive 7.09 SEK (Swedish currency) in September 2005. Today is already under this level at SEK 7.02. If you look at the USD to SEK over one year period you will get an average of around 7.47 with a high of 7.94 and a low of 7.04. Here is an excerpt from John Mauldin's article, Premise #3: A Falling Dollar:

Speaking of ebb and flow, the dollar is not on some permanent downward path. It will find a bottom, probably ridiculously low, the trade deficit thing will get sorted out and then the dollar will start to rise. As an example, I think Europe has more long term structural problems than the US (I am speaking in terms of decades, not years) and would not be surprised to see the dollar and the euro at parity in 10-15-20 years. (, 10/29/04.)

More thoughts on other currencies. What will the ban on paprika do to the Hungarian economy? Will I get more Forints when I go to the Forex exchange next week?

Fidel Castro must be groggy after falling down the stairs... Here is an excerpt from Mary Murray's article, Cubans leery over dollar dumping:

Starting Nov. 8, Cuban stores and restaurants will no longer accept the American currency as legal tender. Instead, the local convertible peso becomes king, ruling over all international hard currencies, even though it carries no purchasing power off the island. (NBC News, 10/28/04.)